TradeSports "More Efficient" than Iowa Markets

We already have one winner in the U.S. Presidential Elections. Today Bloomberg has a hedge-fund manager praising the mertits of the betting exchange TradeSports:

Iowa Presidential Futures Market Surpassed by Dublin Exchange
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The University of Iowa's market for
U.S. presidential futures, founded 16-years ago, has been
overtaken by a Dublin-based exchange that is now 25 times larger.
Investors betting on the race between President George W.
Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry have purchased
contracts worth more than $4 million on Intrade, better known by
its Web address. The Iowa Electronic Markets, a
not-for-profit wagering system, has a potential payout of
``TradeSports is a more efficient market and a deeper
market,'' said ... a money manager at Peconic Management Company,
a hedge fund in Bedford Corners, New York.
``I probably watch this more than any human being.''...

And there really seems to be some turnover these days in the Bush vs. Kerry betting market. Currently, the market for contracts paying out 100 in the case of a victory for G.W. Bush stands at 53.8-54.1, a bid-ask spread of less than 1% of a very volatile contract value. A market liquidity that is, at least as relative to TradeSport's maximum contract sizes, well at par with most financial markets.

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